New Zealand election 2017 information

Polling, policy and news – plus live results on election night. Updates added to this page as the campaign continues.

Poll of polls

Latest polling on New Zealand political parties

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  • The Stuff poll of polls is an average of the most recent poll from each public polling company – Roy Morgan, Colmar Brunton (published by TVNZ) and Reid Research (Newshub). It is updated each time a new poll is published
  • Polls 0-35 days old carry a weighting of 1; 36 to 70 days old a weighting of 0.67; and 71 to 105 days old 0.33.
  • The method is based on four assumptions: (1) simple modelling approaches give better forecasts than complex ones, (2) non-sampling errors are reduced by combining polls with different methods in equal proportion, (3) the presence of random effects means that weighting by sample size is not required, (4) people’s views may change, so if a poll is not replaced it will gradually become less relevant.
  • The methodology was developed by Stuff with Professor Malcolm Wright of Massey University.
  • The data set with all of the poll results is available to download here and the poll of polls results here.
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